Innoviz: to 2026 and beyond! 🚀

When is the inflection point?

Is Innoviz finally at an inflection point or is there more time to wait? What’s the health of the business and what’s been going on in the entire sector?

If you’re new to Innoviz, go read my three part series on the company and the Lidar sector in general:

Part 1: Innoviz, a lidar leader in an emerging market

Part 2: Traction traction traction

Part 3: To buy or to sell?

Lidar Q4 2025 sector report

Innoviz has a few key drivers: cash burn, revenue traction and future wins.

Solvency, cash and dilution

Unfortunate we have to start with this topic, but it’s true. The concern for many years with Innoviz has been its cash burn and the dilution that comes with that to stay alive.

But this isn’t to reminisce about the past, but to look forward!

Cash and expenses

Innoviz ended the year with 90m in current assets. Of those, $72,130m in cash, and no debt. This is roughly flat with year end 2024 - overall healthy. This is due to some improvement in the business, cost cutting and lots of shareholder dilution. Shares outstanding at year end 2025 were 214,090,980 vs 169,397,214. A whopping 25% growth. Innoviz sold shares in early 2025 and then put in an at the money facility in H2 (I covered these here and here).

Lest I only focus on shareholder dilution (which is a necessary situation for the company), it’s very worthwhile pointing out the slimming down and focus that Innoviz has achieved over the past two years: from $93m in 2023 to $48m in 2025, almost a 50% reduction. During these two years they’ve continued to ship and develop new products, announce commercial activities and in general - move along with their roadmap.

In a tough environment it speaks a lot that they’ve shipped:

1. InnovizTwo, InnovizSmart, InnovizThree

2. Daimler, Nvidia, Loxo

nnoviz has two things going against it on a cash burn level: the USD has collapsed vs the NIS, making everything more expensive, including the R&D expense. Second, office leases costs ramp up starting 2026. Neither of these are insurmountable, simply yet another headwind for 2026-2027. At a cash burn rate of ~55m, Innoviz has plenty of cash on hand for all of 2026. An important point. That’s not quite accurate however, as working capital can have a larger part to play in 2026 as the company prepares to ship. Generally speaking, it looks like cash is set for the next 4 quarters, especially if Innoviz continues to utilise its ATM facility at the same pace they did during 2025 for ~$8m a quarter. The risk of bankruptcy has largely been removed. The risk of dilution is very dependent on revenue growth.

Automotive focused growth

NRE revenue:

NRE revenue is what (hopefully) bridges the gap to profitability for Innoviz. In 2024 they signed an $80m NRE agreement with VW. They enhanced it to $95m in mid 2025 and $111 by year end. They’re looking to book another $20-$30m in NRE contract revenue in 2026. Assuming they hit their 2026 targets (and based on Innoviz hitting all guidance for the past few years I grant this as a base case), this gives Innoviz ~$91m in NRE revenue in 2026 - 2027.

Upcoming product revenue:

Innoviz has a decent array of automotive focused pipeline:

1. L3 Programs: This is mainly the VW relationship via Mobileye, and while it’s slated for 2027 launch, and currently on track, these programs have a way of getting delayed. It wasn’t positive that Mobileye didn’t mention this at all in there prepared comments in their Q1 2026 call. There is some positive commentary from VW. VW is gearing up for a L3 Audi brand launch in China by end of 2026. While this is based on Chinese based lidar, it does show that the company as a whole is moving towards L3 comfort zone. Innoviz also stated in their Q1 PR: “Amidst strong interest in Level 4 programs, multiple OEMs have Level 3 RFQs in 2026 with programs targeted to ramp in 2028.” While they’ve (and the entire industry) have been making statements like this quite literally since 2021, I do believe 2028-2029 are the year that is actually going to happen this time.
   
   Why?
   
   I’ve been convinced for the past two years that L3 is the ugly duckling. Consumers get most of the actual functionality they need with a FSD type product, i.e a L2+. For a consumer this value proposition is “let your car drive you down the highway while you text on your phone”. Full L3 lets you open a laptop on the highway. The delta for the consumer isn’t large, but the jump in technical capabilities is large. One requires the driver to be alert, the latter puts liability on the OEM. Despite the clear PMF of Tesla’s FSD, no western OEM has yet to ship this. BMW and Mercedes jumped ahead to L3, but these products aren’t mature, and essentially these are L2+, with L3 sensors - i.e a pricier product.
   
   The fact that no OEM has shipped an L2+ offering doesn’t bode well for L3 in 2028. However, there are some changes in the market - AI has improved. A lot. Including the software and vendor ecosystem (Nvidia, Qualcomm, Wave etc). Software defined vehicles across most OEM programs have advanced. Last but not least, Lidars have improved in functionality and dropped in cost. Take Innoviz as an example. The InnovizOne which shipped in 2023 was installed in the grille, a low and less effective point. InnovizTwo is already mass production grade, smaller, 70% cheaper and more configurable (long range and short range). InnovizThree finally has the form factor OEMs want, in the windshield, even more configurable and an additional 35% cost reduction on the InnovizTwo. To put that into perspective, if the InnovizOne cost $2000, the InnovizThree costs $500. That’s massive.

2. L4 robotaxi programs: These carry 9 lidars per vehicles, so are significant. They also are closer to launch than the L3 programs.

   1. Mobileye Drive <> VW / MOIA / Beep: This is the most important near term volume relationship. It’s built around the ID.Buzz, a VW built vehicle, with potential of 50,000 units a year. VW runs an autonomous shuttle program under the MOIA brand (Mobility-as-a-Service subsidiary). Back in May Innoviz announced acceleration of LiDAR delivery to equip “hundreds” of ID.Buzz shuttles in 2025 ahead of 2026 fleet deployment. This supports MOIA’s planned market expansion across multiple European and U.S. cities. MOIA currently has tests in Hamburg and Berlin.
      MOIA America has two main relationships:
      1. MOIA America + Beep: MOIA America partnered with Beep (an autonomous mobility operator in the U.S.) to deploy the ID.Buzz AD platform targeting up to 5,000 vehicles over the next decade, beginning in Orlando.
      2. MOIA America has a more significant partnership with Uber to deploy AV’s to the Uber network by year end 2026: MOIA America is testing a growing fleet of autonomous ID. Buzz vehicles in Los Angeles, with plans to begin offering rides on the Uber platform in late 2026”. During 2026 they plan to scale to 100 test vehicles in the LA market.
      All in all MOIA looks ready to ship 500 vehicles in 2026, with series production aimed at 2027: “Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles’ Hanover plant has now begun ramping up pre-series production of the fully autonomous ID. Buzz AD. Before the end of this year, the first 500 vehicles for projects in Europe and the USA are to be manufactured. Series production of the ID. Buzz AD is set to begin in 2027.”

   2. Mobileye Drive <> Holon: Holon, a mobility brand of Benteler (a German tier 1), operates an AV shuttle that it has been touting for a few years. Like the ID.Buzz, the Holon mover has the capability of being ramped up fairly quickly once ‘product market fit’ is reached. Jacksonville has ordered 100 Holon vehicles, but these are slated for 2027 - 14 are approved for purchase with another 86 optional in 2027. A more significant opportunity is in the Holon <> Lyft partnership, announced July 2025: “We intend to deploy HOLON urban autonomous shuttles on the Lyft platform with the goal of starting in the U.S. in late 2026. We initially plan to deploy these shuttles in partnership with airports and cities, with the opportunity to expand to thousands of vehicles”. Thousands of vehicles would be nice, but not near term.
      Holon also has a MoU with Abu Dhabi, but unclear on the actual timeline for this.

   3. Mobileye Drive <> Verne: A robotaxi startup aimed at eastern Europe. There are concrete plans to launch in Zagreb in 2026, but these will probably be a small launch in numbers, although any test point for the Mobileye Drive stack is a valid test point.

   4. Mobileye Drive! In June 2026 Mobileye announced that they’re going to become their own provider of MaaS with their own fleet. Their initial target is 100 vehicles in a US city in 2027. If this progresses well, they’ll aim to scale quickly.

3. L4 Trucking: Daimler Truck + Torc Robotics announced InnovizTwo as the short range lidar for their Cascadia Class 8 semi-truck. However this is still early days in development and at least a 2028 story.

Other bets: Smart infrastructure, defense and physical AI (robotics)

Innoviz made a pivot into these categories in 2025, with lots of collaborations announced (lots), but no actual revenue as of yet. On the Q4 2025 call, CEO Omer Keilaf stated that some of the forecasted ~$6.5m is booked, but not most. On May 14th, just as I was hitting publish the company announced selling several hundred units to an Israel defense integrator, Kela Technologies for discovery of drones.

On June 23, they announced a partnership with Drive group, via their Barak 555 subsidiary for perimiter security, with the goal of reaching sales of $20m by year end 2027. Some of these revenues are already pre-paid.
2026 should see more of these announcements convert. I’m positive on this sector based on a clear product market fit in a lot of areas - traffic, perimeter security and defense all are such easy low hanging fruit use cases - put together with commercial readiness of the InnovizSmart product. This is an automotive grade designed lidar ready for mass production. Lidars are expensive and products deployed at the edge requires ruggedness. They require operating in cold and rain, being resistant to mud and items obscuring the sensors. Automotive grade bring an advantage here.
It’s hard / impossible to forecast this branch of the business but it could be anywhere from hundreds to thousands to tens of thousands of sensors over the next few years. For comparison, Ouster, the only real player in this space, shipped 12,600 units in Q1. These lidars are ~$4000 a unit, almost 4-5x an Innoviz ASP.

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Updates since publishing:

Innoviz has announced multiple collaborations in the defense space, mostly with startups:
1. Regulus: a counter UAS system, 400 systems shipped to date.
2. Givon Defense: A startup with an impressive team, but no listed sales.
3. AeroNous: A startup/spin out of an established defense tech firm, developed 2 prototypes using Innoviz Lidar.
They’ve also appointed a heavy hitter in defense tech to the board, in the form of Yoav Har Even.

Expected product volume in 2026 - 2027

Taking the above together we arrive at:

• Holon: ~50 from JTA + Lyft in 2026, and ~500 in 2027.

• MOIA total: 500 vehicles in 2026, scaling to ~2000 in 2027 (across Beep, Uber, other cities).

• Mobileye AV: 100 vehicles late in 2026 / early 2027. Unclear how many in 2027.

• Verne: ~10 in 2026.

• Daimler trucks: ~20 (3-4 lidars per vehicle)

• Audi L3 program: ~250 (2028 is the target year for ‘mass production’ for this program, aimed at full ramp target of 50k vehicles a year. Important to not these ramp ups take 1-3 years).

I assume increasing scale up in 2027 based on Uber and Lyft mainly. Both companies really need robotaxis on the road that fit into their thesis of commoditizing the L4 providers/competitors. If 2026 launch goes according to plan, Uber could scale MOIA to 5 cities with ~400 vehicles per city.

Product shipments:

2026: 560 X 9 + 20 X 3 + 250 = 5,350 units = ~$4m in revenue.

2027: roughly 23,650, assuming ~1,000 Audi L3 vehicles = $17.6m in revenue.

The big variables are the Audi/VW L3 programs, and how many units ship in 2027 (this could be anywhere from ~500 to ~2,000). This is highly dependent on timelines, vehicle ramp and whether lidars are mandatory or an add on option.

Similarly, for the other bets. This could be ~500 in 2026 or 5000. At higher ASPs (due to more components) this could put 2026 product revenue anywhere between $4.5m - $15m. For 2027 naturally this gap widens even further.

Overall, these revenue numbers are quite low since they don’t account for other sensors that Innoviz ships for testing vehicles, one offs or prototypes. For perspective, Innoviz booked $9.5m in product sales during 2025, so a ~$4m number is clearly low. It does however highlight how low the actual core business revenue is.

The problem with Innoviz is the variability and uncertainty. 2027 revenue can be in a huge range of anywhere from $55m - $100m.

• $40m in NRE based on 2026 commercial projects

• $17.5m - $33m (key variables being Audi L3 vehicles ranging between 1,000 - 4,000, and Other bets bringing in $12m)

• ~$20m in 2027 booked NRE for new projects

At the lower end, 2027 is another ‘muddle along’ year. At the higher end, it’s an inflection year.

Company guidance

Innoviz has guided for 2026 roughly in line with my internal forecast above:

• Revenues of $67-$73 million;

• 2-3 new program wins;

• LiDAR sales for non-automotive Physical AI applications up to 10% of revenue; and

• New NRE payments plans of $20-$30 million.

They’ve also guided for doubling product shipment.

$6.7m of physical AI applications implies ~2500-6000 units (depending on ASPs). Less than Ouster shipped in Q1, but still a very nice growth from 0. Working backwards from the guide this would mean:

1. $7m in Other bets.

2. $10m in product revenue

3. $50m in NRE revenue

NRE revenue offsets operational cashflow of the engineering cost. Product revenue flows through at a much worse gross margin. As it flows, 2026 looks to be similar to 2025 in terms of operating cash burn, or slightly more positive if more NRE revenue is booked.

Dilution

Dilution should be much less going forward, at least in 2026. Burning ~$50m in operating cash, while raising ~$30m throughout the year via an ATM, means the company should end the year with at least ~$50m in cash, and another ~$20m in their ATM facility + ~$40-50m in NRE revenue for 2027. Not unhealthy relatively speaking. If 2027 is a muddle along year, we can expect more dilution. If it’s an inflection year, that changes.

Less dilution is relative. I’m still planning 10% dilution in the base case, with up to 25% if working capital increases, warrants convert or the company opportunistically raises capital.

Challenges, narratives and next steps

Lidar companies are notoriously slow to scale. It’s not entirely their fault - the industries they work in are slow moving. Automotive specifically, which has long been the promised main user of high volume lidar shipments is the main culprit. Mass shipments should have been on the road by 2025, that’s now looking increasingly like a 2028 launch and 2029 for actual volumes. That’s quite a ways out for an industry where cash flow is critical.

After so long, and multiple industry failures, it’s tough to tell what causes winds of change in the industry. I’d imagine nothing less than very believable announcements by GM, Ford, and Toyota - mass production on the road with L3 or L2++. Alternatively, large deployments of L2+ and L3 in the wild (in China for example), that could get things going.

There are several semi L3 programs in place, unfortunately, not with Innoviz, and none of which seem successful yet: BMW and Mercedes launched L3 vehicles. GM looked into it and hasn’t done anything.

On the one hand, Innoviz is valued at ~$180m. Including the cash, and the cash burn. It’s priced for very low chance of success + lots of dilution - which could be very accurate based on the timeline I laid out above.

However...Even a small rerating could send the company up 100-200% to trade with peers. Any fundamental shift (any upside from what I mentioned above) could justify a narrative shift.

That narrative shift could come from company fundamentals or a new hype cycle. In 2026 that seems more and more likely. Defense tech is one of the hottest sectors in the market this year. You know what’s critical for defense and perimeter security? Lidar. If any of the large or midcap defense integrators decide that they want lidar to offer a better product, buying a down and out player like Aeye, Ouster, Innoviz, Aeva, Microvision is an easy option. Buying any one of them could set the sector on fire, and we could see all the companies in the space run up by 100% easily.

How I’m managing my Innoviz position hasn’t changed since writing this in March 2025:

How I’m playing Innoviz

I want to capture the upside in Innoviz, even before the next decade. To do that catching the inflection point is critical. Currently it’s being priced at 1.5x cash - the market is heavily discounting any future prospects. As Innoviz emerges as a clear lidar winner in a growth category I’d expect the company’s valuation to start reflecting this (and the future dilution needs). I also want to survive the wild ride and ride this growth story for the next five years.

To do that it comes down to two aspects:

1. Risk/Reward

2. Position sizing

Understanding the risk/reward is critical and reflecting this in the size of your position will determine whether this is a good or bad investment.

While the upside in investing in Innoviz is immense, it’s also both incredibly high risk and long duration. Even the most optimistic scenario has a 80% probability of future dilution. It can also go directly to zero if the company runs out of cash due to a myriad of factors: OEMs postponing decisions or timelines regarding L3, competition becoming more serious or technological breakthroughs in computer vision or high resolution radar.

Even the optimistic scenarios aren’t ‘straight up and to the right’. Position sizing has to reflect these risks and time horizons. This is why I’ve positioned Innoviz to be small enough so that I can both weather down swings and add over time as risks become mitigated. For example, entering 2025 Innoviz was a 2% position in my entire portfolio. Following their recent capital raise in February of 2025, cash was de-risked greatly, and while it still exists I felt comfortable adding to Innoviz as the stock crashed from $1.50 to $0.80.

The other aspect to proper position sizing is buying with appropriate scales. Innoviz can drop 50% within a few weeks, and does this fairly often - it’s a low market cap company and swings on small volume. Thus adding to the company on very wide scales is appropriate.

I’ve increased my position in Innoviz over 2025 as the company derisked bankruptcy, improved commercial traction, and the stock fell. It’s currently a ~5% position, which I’m comfortable increasing - slowly and at large scales. I don’t know how to time Innoviz, but the turn is getting closer, it’ll be quite a ride when it comes and I want to be there when it finally comes.